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Modeling engineering data using extended power-Lindley distribution: Properties and estimation methods
⁎Corresponding author at: Department of Statistics, Central University of Haryana, India. devendrastats@gmail.com (Devendra Kumar)
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Received: ,
Accepted: ,
This article was originally published by Elsevier and was migrated to Scientific Scholar after the change of Publisher.
Peer review under responsibility of King Saud University.
Abstract
In this paper, we introduce a new flexible distribution called the Weibull Marshall-Olkin power-Lindley (WMOPL) distribution to extend and increase the flexibility of the power-Lindley distribution to model engineering related data. The WMOPL has the ability to model lifetime data with decreasing, increasing, J-shaped, reversed-J shaped, unimodal, bathtub, and modified bathtub shaped hazard rates. Various properties of the WMOPL distribution are derived. Seven frequentist estimation methods are considered to estimate the WMOPL parameters. To evaluate the performance of the proposed methods and provide a guideline for engineers and practitioners to choose the best estimation method, a detailed simulation study is carried out. The performance of the estimators have been ranked based on partial and overall ranks. The performance and flexibility of the introduced distribution are studied using one real data set from the field of engineering. The data show that the WMOPL model performs better than some well-known extensions of the power-Lindley and Lindley distributions.
Keywords
Anderson–Darling estimation
Maximum likelihood estimation
Maximum product of spacing
Moments
Power-Lindley distribution
1 Introduction
The life length of any system and/or device can be usually described by means of lifetime distributions. The most commonly used lifetime distributions are the exponential, Weibull, Lindley, and gamma distributions. However, many real lifetime data can not be modeled effectively using classical distributions. Owing to this, there is a growing interest in statistical literature to develop more flexible distributions in the distribution theory which capable of modeling several real data in applied areas such as engineering and reliability. Among the new generalized models, the generalizations of the Lindley distribution have become popular in recent times as it is observed that in several cases, the Lindley model and its generalizations are capable of modelling lifetime data adequately. Hence, several researchers are focusing on finding new generalizations/extensions of the Lindley distribution to describe lifetime phenomena in many applied areas. Modeling real data using generalized distributions is an open problem and consequently many generalized distributions have been developed and applied in several fields. Nevertheless, there are still many important problems involving real data, which are not addressed by known models.
Lindley distribution was proposed by Lindley (Lindley, 1958) as a mixture of exponential and gamma distributions in the context of fiducial and Bayesian statistics. Ghitany et al. (Ghitany et al., 2008) studied some of its structural properties and pointed out that it is more suitable for modelling waiting times before service of bank customers data than the exponential distribution. The statistical literature abounds in many extended forms of Lindley distribution. For example, the generalized Lindley (Zakerzadeh and Dolati, 2009), negative binomial Lindley (Zamani and Ismail, 2010), generalized Poisson Lindley (Mahmoudi and Zakerzadeh, 2010), transmuted Lindley (Merovci, 2013), power-Lindley (PL) (Ghitany et al., 2013), complementary geometric transmuted-Lindley (Afify et al., 2016), Weibull Lindley (Asgharzadeh et al., 2018) and extended odd Weibull Lindley distributions (Alizadeh et al., 2018) and so on. Furthermore, Al-Babtain et al. (Al-Babtain et al., 2020) introduced the natural discrete Lindely as a mixture of negative binomial and geometric distributions.
For any baseline G distribution with parameter vector
, Korkmaz et al. (Korkmaz et al., 2019) proposed the Weibull Marshall-Olkin-G (WMO-G) family based on the T-X generator introduced by Alzaatreh et al. (Alzaatreh et al., 2013). The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the T-X generator is defined by
Setting , with shape parameter and
Hence, the CDF of the WMO-G family takes the form
The corresponding probability density function (PDF) of (2) is defined as
The hazard rate function (HRF) of the WMO-G family is where is the HRF of the baseline model.
The Weibull-X family (Alzaatreh et al. (Alzaatreh et al., 2013), Cordeiro et al. (Cordeiro et al., 2015)) follows as special case from the WMO-G family with . The MO-G family (Marshall and Olkin (Marshall and Olkin, 1997)) is obtained as a special class from the WMO-G family with . The baseline distribution follows from the WMO-G family for . More details on the WMO-G family can be explored in Korkmaz (Korkmaz et al., 2019).
Motivated by this rationale, we introduce a new four-parameter lifetime distribution called the Weibull Marshall-Olkin power-Lindley (WMOPL) distribution as a generalization of two parameter PL distribution and to study some of its properties. The WMOPL distributions generalizes the PL model (Ghitany et al., 2013), Marshall-Olkin PL (MOPL) (Hibatullah et al., 2018), WMO-Lindley (WMOL) (Afify et al., 2020b) distributions among others. The importance of the new distribution is the ability of describing real data-set with decreasing, increasing, J-shaped, reversed-J shaped, unimodal, bathtub, and modified bathtub shaped hazard rate functions better than at least eighteen well known lifetime extensions of the Lindley and power-Lindley distributions as we show later. Its density function admits a linear mixture representation of PL densities. Next, we estimate the WMOPL parameters using different classical methods of estimation and determine the best estimation method for the WMOPL parameters which may be of great help to applied statisticians and engineers. The considered estimators include the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), least squares estimators (LSEs), maximum product of spacings estimators (MPSEs), weighted least squares estimators (WLSEs), Cramer-von-Mises estimators (CMEs), Anderson–Darling estimators (ADEs) and right-tail Anderson–Darling estimators (RADEs). To evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators, we conduct a detailed simulation study for medium and large sample sizes.
A random variable (rv) X is said to follow the PL distribution if its PDF and CDF are given by and
To this end, the CDF of the WMOPL distribution follows, by setting the CDF of the PL model in (2), as
The WMOPL PDF corresponding to (4) takes the form
Henceforth, denotes arv with PDF (5).
The HRF of the WMOPL model takes the form
The WMOPL distribution contains some special cases such as the Weibull-PL distribution (for ), the MOPL distribution (for ), the WMOL distribution (for ), and the PL distribution (for ).
Some possible shapes for the PDF and HRF of the WMOPL distribution are depicted graphically in Figs. 1 and 2, respectively.Plots of WMOPL PDF for different parametric values.
Plots of WMOPL HF for different parametric values.
The article is organized as follows. In the next section, we provide some properties of the WMOPL distribution. In Section 3, different frequentist methods of estimation are discussed. Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to compare the different methods of estimation in Section 4. The potentiality of the WMOPL model is illustrated by means of one engineering related data set in Section 5. Finally, some concluding remarks are addressed in Section 6.
2 Properties of the WMOPL distribution
Some mathematical properties of the WMOPL distribution are presented in this section. We consider only the case , since for all equations derived hold by changing the coefficients by .
2.1 Linear representation
To have a linear representation for the WMOPL PDF based on power series
the exponential part of the CDF of X can be expressed from (4) as
For
and any real parameter b, the formula holds
The following power series holds for a real non-integer b and , where = is defined for any real b. Hence, one can obtain
Consider the convergent power series expression (for and )
For
, we can rewrite
as
Consider the Lehmann type II (LTII) CDF which is defined, for a baseline CDF, by with power parameter (PoPa) . Hence, the PDF of the LTII reduces to , where .
Consider the set of non-negative integers, say .
Differentiating Eq. (9), the PDF of X follows as
Otherwise, if , we can write (10) as
By using previous series expressions, we obtain
Eqs. (10) and (11) reveal that the PDF of the WMOPL model for the two cases are linear combination of LTII-PL densities.
Every LTII-PL can be expressed in terms of exponentiated-PL (EPL) desnities. By expanding (for c real), the power series converges everywhere
By differentiating the above equation, we get
Hence, some structural properties of the WMOPL distribution can be determined from those of the EL distribution reported by Nadarajah et al. (Nadarajah et al., 2011).
2.2 Quantile function and moments
The quantile function (QF) of the WMOPL distribution takes the form
We obtain the moments and moment generating function (MGF) of
WMOPL
. Nadarajah et al. (Nadarajah et al., 2011) defined and computed
which can be used to produce the rth moment
. We can write
The nth ordinary moment can be calculated by using (9), (10) and (11). Hence is given by
Analogously, the MGF of X can be determined (for ) as
3 Methods of estimation
This section is devoted to discussing seven estimation approaches of the WMOPL parameters called the MLEs, ADEs, CMEs, MPSEs, LSEs, RADEs, and WLSEs. It is worth mentioning that, several authors have been studied the estimation of the model parameters using classical estimation methods. For example, (Afify et al., 2020a; Afify and Mohamed, 2020; Al-Babtain et al., 2021; Al-Mofleh et al., 2020; Nassar et al., 2020a,b).
3.1 Maximum likelihood estimators
The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is the most important method to estimate parameters of a given distribution due to its desirable properties. Let be a random sample of size n from the WMOPL distribution, hence the likelihood function of X takes the form where .
The corresponding log-likelihood function follows as
Let be the MLEs of the WMOPL parameters. They can be determined numerically by maximizing or by solving the non-linear equations: and
3.2 Anderson–Darling and right-tail Anderson–Darling estimators
Let be the ordered observations of a sample of size n from the WMOPL distribution with CDF (4). We can obtain the ADEs of thr parameters and by minimizing the function
The above equations for finding the ADEs of parameters of X are as follows:
and
where
,
The RADEs of the WMOPL parameters can be obtained by minimizing with respect to and . Furthermore, the RADE can be determined by solving the non-linear equations: where ( ) are defined by (15)–(18).
3.3 Cramer-von-Mises estimators
The CMEs of its unknown parameters of the WMOPL distribution can be found numerically by minimizing with respect to .
3.4 Maximum product of spacing estimators
This method is applied to a random sample of size n from the WMOPL distribution based on the expression where and .
The MPSEs of the WMOPL parameters can also be determined by maximising the function in relation to and .
3.5 Least squares and weighted least squares estimators
The LSEs of the WMOPL parameters can be calculated by numerical minimization of the function: with respect to and , where .
The WLSEs of the WMOPL parameters can be calculated by minimizing numerically the function where with respect to and .
4 Simulation study
In this section, we explore the performance of the aforementioned estimators of the WMOPL parameters using extensive simulation results. We consider different sample sizes, , and various parameter combinations, and . We obtain the average absolute biases (BIAS), average mean square error (MSE) and average mean relative errors (MRE) of the estimates for all sample sizes and parameter combinations. These measures were ranked based on partial and overall ranks to determine the best estimation method for estimating the WMOPL parameters.
The results of the simulation study including BIAS, MSE, and MRE were reported in Tables 1–3. The row indicating
gives the partial sum of the ranks. A superscript indicates the rank of each of the estimators among all the estimators for that metric.
n
Est.
Est. Par.
MLEs
ADEs
CMEs
MPSEs
LSEs
RADEs
WLSEs
30
BIAS
MSE
MRE
80
BIAS
MSE
MRE
200
BIAS
MSE
MRE
400
BIAS
MSE
MRE
n
Est.
Est. Par.
MLEs
ADEs
CMEs
MPSEs
LSEs
RADEs
WLSEs
30
BIAS
MSE
MRE
80
BIAS
MSE
MRE
200
BIAS
MSE
MRE
400
BIAS
MSE
MRE
n
Est.
Est. Par.
MLEs
ADEs
CMEs
MPSEs
LSEs
RADEs
WLSEs
30
BIAS
MSE
MRE
80
BIAS
MSE
MRE
200
BIAS
MSE
MRE
400
BIAS
MSE
MRE
It is shown, from Tables 1–4, that all the estimators reveal the property of consistency i.e., the MSE decreases when the sample size increases and the biases of
, and
decrease when n increases for all estimation methods. Furthermore, In terms of performance of the methods of estimation, we found that the MLEs are the best estimators as they produce the least biases, MSE with the least MRE for most of the configurations considered in our study. The next best estimators are the MPSEs, followed by the ADEs. The overall positions of the estimators are presented in Table 5, from which we can confirm the superiority of MLEs. In summary, based on Table 5, the performance ordering of estimators from best to worst for all parameters combinations is MLEs, MPSEs, ADEs, CMEs, RADEs, WLSEs, and LSEs.
n
Est.
Est. Par.
MLEs
ADEs
CMEs
MPSEs
LSEs
RADEs
WLSEs
30
BIAS
MSE
MRE
80
BIAS
MSE
MRE
200
BIAS
MSE
MRE
400
BIAS
MSE
MRE
Parameter
MLEs
ADEs
CMEs
MPSEs
LSEs
RADEs
WLSEs
30
2
5
1
3
6
4
7
80
3
5
1
2
7
4
6
200
3
4
1
2
7
5
6
400
1
4
3
2
7
5
6
30
1
3.5
6
2
7
3.5
5
80
1
3
7
2
6
4
5
200
1
3
7
2
6
4
5
400
1
3
6.5
2
6.5
5
4
30
1
3
6.5
2
5
6.5
4
80
1
3
5
2
6
7
4
200
1
3
6
2
5
7
4
400
1.5
3
5
1.5
6
7
4
30
1
2
4
3
6
5
7
80
1
2
4.5
3
7
4.5
6
200
1
2
5
3
7
4
6
400
2.5
4
5
2.5
6
1
7
Ranks
23
52.5
73.5
36
100.5
76.5
86
Overall Rank
1
3
4
2
7
5
6
5 Engineering application
In this section, we consider one real data set form the engineering science to illustrate the flexibility of the WMOPL distribution. The data set consists of 63 observations of the strengths of cm glass fibers. It was originally obtained by the workers at the UK National Physical Laboratory (Smith and Naylor (Smith and Naylor, 1987).
The proposed WMOPL distribution is compared with some well-known competing Lindley extensions, including odd log–logistic Marshall-Olkin (MO) power-Lindley (OLLMOPL) (Alizadeh et al., 2017a), MO power-Lindley (MOPL) (Alizadeh et al., 2017a), Kumaraswamy power-Lindley (KPL) (Oluyede et al., 2016), odd Dagum Lindely (ODL) (Afify and Alizadeh, 2020), odd log–logistic MO Lindley (OLLMOL) (Alizadeh et al., 2017b), MO Lindley (MOL) (Marshall and Olkin, 1997), Weibull Lindley (WL) (Asgharzadeh et al., 2018), Weibull MO Lindley (WMOL) (Afify et al., 2020b), power-Lindley (PL) (Ghitany et al., 2013), odd log–logistic Lindley (OLLL) (Ozel et al., 2017), odd log–logistic power-Lindley (OLLPL) (Alizadeh et al., 2017a), Weibull (W), Kumaraswamy-Lindley (KWL) (Merovci and Sharma, 2014b), beta-Lindley (BL) (Merovci and Sharma, 2014a), weighted Lindley (WEL) (Ghitany et al., 2011), transmuted Lindley (TL) (Merovci, 2013), Lindley (L) and gamma Lindely (GL) distributions.
The competing models were compared using some analytical measures including minus log-likelihood ( ) and some information criteria (IC) such as Akaike IC (AIC), corrected AIC (CAIC), Bayesian IC (BIC), and HannanQuinn IC (HQIC) along with some goodness of fit measures such as Anderson Darling (AD), Cramér–von Mises (CM), and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) with its p-value (KS p-value) to determine the best fitting model for the considered data set.
These measures are given, respectively, by where is the maximized log-likelihood function, j denotes the number of estimated parameters, n denotes the sample size, and refer to the ordered observations.
The analytical measures and maximum likelihood (ML) estimates are computed using the Wolfram Mathematica software version 10. Based on our study in the previous section, we adopted the ML method in this section because it is provided the best estimation method for the WMOPL parameters. Table 6 provides the analytical measures along with ML estimates and their standard errors (SEs) in parenthesis. It is observed from Table 6 that all values of the test statistics associated with the goodness of fit measure and information criteria of the WMOPL distribution are less than that of the considered competing distributions. Therefore, the WMOPL model can be considered as a best fitted model for glass fibers data. Further, we observe that the addition of new parameters in the density improves fitting performance of our proposed distribution to the considered data set as compared with its special sub-models (such as MOPL and PL distributions).
Model
AIC
CAIC
BIC
HQIC
AD
CM
KS
KS
-value
Est. parameters (SEs)
WMOPL
9.82947
27.6589
28.3486
36.2315
31.0306
0.31146
0.03573
0.06720
0.93846
OLLMOPL
11.6229
31.2458
31.9354
39.8183
34.6174
0.39453
0.06298
0.09239
0.65531
MOPL
12.0312
30.0625
30.4693
36.4919
32.5912
0.55376
0.08151
0.09926
0.56407
KWPL
13.3329
34.6659
35.3555
43.2384
38.0375
0.71866
0.11595
0.10244
0.52296
ODL
22.0637
52.1273
52.817
52.817
55.4989
0.43197
0.07406
0.10539
0.48607
OLLMOL
15.8406
37.6812
38.088
44.1107
40.21
1.26045
0.16974
0.12465
0.28160
MOL
15.8503
35.7006
15.8503
15.8503
15.8503
1.25874
0.16992
0.12470
0.28112
WL
14.6802
35.3604
35.3604
41.7898
37.8891
0.77835
0.14182
0.12791
0.25400
WMOL
14.3764
34.7528
35.1596
41.1822
37.2815
1.02621
0.17257
0.13871
0.17697
PL
14.69
33.3799
33.5799
33.5799
35.0657
1.11885
0.18951
0.14416
0.14577
OLLL
19.7827
43.5653
43.7653
47.8516
45.2511
1.92960
0.25466
0.14619
0.13535
OLLPL
14.6303
35.2606
35.6673
41.69
37.7893
1.09718
0.19396
0.14654
0.13362
W
14.6802
35.3604
35.7672
35.7672
37.8891
1.24075
0.21509
0.15224
0.10784
KWL
16.8227
39.6455
40.0522
46.0749
42.1742
1.59801
0.29164
0.17118
0.04983
BL
22.9484
51.8968
52.3036
58.3262
54.4255
2.61694
0.48063
0.20423
0.01044
WEL
23.8878
51.7756
51.9756
51.9756
53.4614
3.07693
0.56423
0.21611
0.00556
TL
62.6348
62.6348
129.47
133.556
130.955
11.7956
2.30366
0.31693
0.00000
L
81.2784
81.2784
164.622
166.7
166.7
16.2453
3.33201
0.38643
0.00000
GL
112.955
229.91
229.91
229.91
231.595
18.6933
3.91540
0.48172
0.00000
Fig. 3 provides profile-likelihood plots of the WMOPL parameters for glass fibers data. These plots illustrate the unimodality of profile-likelihood functions for all estimated parameters. The fitted PDF, CDF, SF, and P-P plots of the WMOPL distribution for the data set are depicted in Fig. 4. These figures support the values in Table 6, that the WMOPL distribution provides close fit for the glass fibers data.Plots of the profile-likelihood functions for the four parameters for glass fibers data.
Histogram of glass fibers data with the fitted WMOPL PDF, CDF, SF and P-P plots.
6 Concluding remarks
In this paper, we introduce a new four-parameter distribution called the Weibull Marshall-Olkin power-Lindley (WMOPL) distribution which generalizes some well-known distributions. It is capable of modeling data with decreasing, increasing, J-shaped, reversed-J shaped, unimodal, bathtub, and modified bathtub hazard rate functions. We derive some mathematical properties of the introduced model. The WMOPL parameters are estimated using seven estimation methods. The simulation study explores the performance of these estimators and determines the best estimation method based on partial and overall ranks. Based on this study, the maximum likelihood method outperforms other estimation methods with an overall score of 23. Further, the importance of the WMOPL model is utilized by one real data application from the engineering science. The goodness-of-fit for the data set shows that the introduced model gives better fits in comparison with other well-known Lindley and power-Lindley distributions.
Funding This project is supported by Researchers Supporting Project number (RSP-2020/156) King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to thank the Editor and two referees for their constructive comments that improved the final version of the paper. This work was supported by King Saud University (KSU). The first author, therefore, gratefully acknowledges the KSU for technical and financial support.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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